The science of conjecture: evidence and probability before Pascal

Machine generated contents note: 1. The Ancient Law of Proof i

Egypt and Mesopotamia i; The Talmud 3; Roman Law: Proof and

Presumptions 7; Indian Law io

2. The Medieval Law of Evidence: Suspicion, Half-proof,

and Inquisition 12

Dark Age Ordeals I2; The Gregorian Revolution I4; The Glossators

Invent Half-proof 5; Presumptions in Canon Law 20; Grades of

Evidence and Torture 24; The Postglossators Bartolus and Baldus:

The Completed Theory 28; The Inquisition 33; Law in the East 37

3. Renaissance Law 40

Henry VIII Presumed Wed 40; Tudor Treason Trials 41; Continental

Law: The Treatises on Presumptions 43; The Witch Inquisitors 47;

English Legal Theory and the Reasonable Man 58

4. The Doubting Conscience and Moral Certainty 64

Penance and Doubts 65; The Doctrine of Probabilism 69; Suarez:

Negative and Positive Doubt 76; Grotius, Silhon, and the Morality of

the State 79; Hobbes and the Risk of Attack 8; The Scandal of Lax-

ism 83; English Casuists Pursue the Middle Way 84; Juan Caramuel

Lobkowitz, Prince of Laxists 88; Pascal's Provincial Letters 94

5 Rhetoric, Logic, Theory o02

The Greek Vocabulary of Probability I03; The Sophists Sell the Art

of Persuasion o4; Aristotle's Rhetoric and Logic io9; The Rhetoric to

Alexander II4; Roman Rhetoric: Cicero and Quintilian II6; Islamic

Logic 20o; The Scholastic Dialectical Syllogism 21; Probability in

Ordinary Language 26; Humanist Rhetoric 127; Late Scholastic

Logics 129

6. Hard Science I3I

Observation and Theory I32; Aristotle's Not-by-Chance Argument

'33; Averaging of Observations in Greek Astronomy 34; The Sim-

plicity of Theories 138; Nicole Oresme on Relative Frequency i40;

Copernicus 45; Kepler Harmonizes Observations I47; Galileo on the

Probability of the Coperican Hypothesis I54

7. Soft Science and History 162

The Physiognomics 162; Divination and Astrology 164; The Empiric

School of Medicine on Drug Testing i65; The Talmud and Mai-

monides on Majorities 172; Vernacular Averaging and Quality Control

I75; Experimentation in Biology I77; The Authority of Histories 80;

The Authenticity of Documents I84; Valla and the Donation of Constan-

tine 187; Cano on the Signs of True Histories 192

8. Philosophy: Action and Induction 195

Careades's Mitigated Skepticism 196; The Epicureans on Inference

from Signs 200; Inductive Skepticism and Avicenna's Reply 202;

Aquinas on Tendencies 203; Scotus and Ockham on Induction 206;

Nicholas of Autrecourt 2o0; The Decline of the West 216; Bacon and

Descartes: Certainty? or Moral Certainty? 27; The Jesuits and Hobbes

on Induction 222; Pascal's Deductivist Philosophy of Science 224

9. Religion: Laws of God, Laws of Nature 228

The Argument from Design 228; The Church Fathers 230; Inductive

Skepticism by Revelation 232; John of Salisbury 233; Maimonides on

Creation 235; Are Laws of Nature Necessary? 237; The Reasonable-

ness of Christianity 242; Pascal's Wager 249

io. Aleatory Contracts: Insurance, Annuities, and Bets 258

The Price of Peril 259; Doubtful Claims inJewish Law 261; Olivi on

Usury and Future Profits 262; Pricing Life Annuities 269; Speculation

in Public Debt 272; Insurance Rates 273; Renaissance Bets and Specu-

lation 278; Lots and Lotteries 283; Commerce and the Casuists 285

11. Dice 289

Games of Chance in Antiquity 289; The Medieval Manuscript on the

Interrupted Game 291; Cardano 296; Gamblers and Casuists 300;

Galileo's Fragment 302; De M6er and Roberval 302; The Fermat-

Pascal Correspondence 306; Huygens' Reckoning in Games of Chance

313; Caramuel 316

12. Conclusion 321

Subsymbolic Probability and the Transition to Symbols 324; Kinds of

Probability and the Stages in Discovering Them 326; Why Not Ear-

lier? 330; Two Parallel Histories 340; The Genius of the Scholastics

and the Orbit of Aristotle 343; The Place of Law in the History of Ideas

348; Conclusion and Moral 360

Epilogue: The Survival of Unquantified Probability 362

The Port-RoyalLogic. 362; Leibniz's Logic of Probability 363; To the

Present 365.