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The science of conjecture: evidence and probability before Pascal
Author
Publisher
Johns Hopkins University Press
Publication Date
c2001
Language
English
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Table of Contents
From the Book
Machine generated contents note: 1. The Ancient Law of Proof i
Egypt and Mesopotamia i; The Talmud 3; Roman Law: Proof and
Presumptions 7; Indian Law io
2. The Medieval Law of Evidence: Suspicion, Half-proof,
and Inquisition 12
Dark Age Ordeals I2; The Gregorian Revolution I4; The Glossators
Invent Half-proof 5; Presumptions in Canon Law 20; Grades of
Evidence and Torture 24; The Postglossators Bartolus and Baldus:
The Completed Theory 28; The Inquisition 33; Law in the East 37
3. Renaissance Law 40
Henry VIII Presumed Wed 40; Tudor Treason Trials 41; Continental
Law: The Treatises on Presumptions 43; The Witch Inquisitors 47;
English Legal Theory and the Reasonable Man 58
4. The Doubting Conscience and Moral Certainty 64
Penance and Doubts 65; The Doctrine of Probabilism 69; Suarez:
Negative and Positive Doubt 76; Grotius, Silhon, and the Morality of
the State 79; Hobbes and the Risk of Attack 8; The Scandal of Lax-
ism 83; English Casuists Pursue the Middle Way 84; Juan Caramuel
Lobkowitz, Prince of Laxists 88; Pascal's Provincial Letters 94
5 Rhetoric, Logic, Theory o02
The Greek Vocabulary of Probability I03; The Sophists Sell the Art
of Persuasion o4; Aristotle's Rhetoric and Logic io9; The Rhetoric to
Alexander II4; Roman Rhetoric: Cicero and Quintilian II6; Islamic
Logic 20o; The Scholastic Dialectical Syllogism 21; Probability in
Ordinary Language 26; Humanist Rhetoric 127; Late Scholastic
Logics 129
6. Hard Science I3I
Observation and Theory I32; Aristotle's Not-by-Chance Argument
'33; Averaging of Observations in Greek Astronomy 34; The Sim-
plicity of Theories 138; Nicole Oresme on Relative Frequency i40;
Copernicus 45; Kepler Harmonizes Observations I47; Galileo on the
Probability of the Coperican Hypothesis I54
7. Soft Science and History 162
The Physiognomics 162; Divination and Astrology 164; The Empiric
School of Medicine on Drug Testing i65; The Talmud and Mai-
monides on Majorities 172; Vernacular Averaging and Quality Control
I75; Experimentation in Biology I77; The Authority of Histories 80;
The Authenticity of Documents I84; Valla and the Donation of Constan-
tine 187; Cano on the Signs of True Histories 192
8. Philosophy: Action and Induction 195
Careades's Mitigated Skepticism 196; The Epicureans on Inference
from Signs 200; Inductive Skepticism and Avicenna's Reply 202;
Aquinas on Tendencies 203; Scotus and Ockham on Induction 206;
Nicholas of Autrecourt 2o0; The Decline of the West 216; Bacon and
Descartes: Certainty? or Moral Certainty? 27; The Jesuits and Hobbes
on Induction 222; Pascal's Deductivist Philosophy of Science 224
9. Religion: Laws of God, Laws of Nature 228
The Argument from Design 228; The Church Fathers 230; Inductive
Skepticism by Revelation 232; John of Salisbury 233; Maimonides on
Creation 235; Are Laws of Nature Necessary? 237; The Reasonable-
ness of Christianity 242; Pascal's Wager 249
io. Aleatory Contracts: Insurance, Annuities, and Bets 258
The Price of Peril 259; Doubtful Claims inJewish Law 261; Olivi on
Usury and Future Profits 262; Pricing Life Annuities 269; Speculation
in Public Debt 272; Insurance Rates 273; Renaissance Bets and Specu-
lation 278; Lots and Lotteries 283; Commerce and the Casuists 285
11. Dice 289
Games of Chance in Antiquity 289; The Medieval Manuscript on the
Interrupted Game 291; Cardano 296; Gamblers and Casuists 300;
Galileo's Fragment 302; De M6er and Roberval 302; The Fermat-
Pascal Correspondence 306; Huygens' Reckoning in Games of Chance
313; Caramuel 316
12. Conclusion 321
Subsymbolic Probability and the Transition to Symbols 324; Kinds of
Probability and the Stages in Discovering Them 326; Why Not Ear-
lier? 330; Two Parallel Histories 340; The Genius of the Scholastics
and the Orbit of Aristotle 343; The Place of Law in the History of Ideas
348; Conclusion and Moral 360
Epilogue: The Survival of Unquantified Probability 362
The Port-RoyalLogic. 362; Leibniz's Logic of Probability 363; To the
Present 365.
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ISBN
9780801865695
9781421418810
9781421418810
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